New study shows demand for skilled nursing care far exceeds supply

February 12, 2001

PRNewswire -- A new study by the American Health Care Association (AHCA) says that because of heavy baby-boom retirement levels within the next decade, and the simultaneous decrease of nurses entering the long term care field, "there will not be a sufficient workforce available in the coming years to maintain even the current staffing levels in skilled nursing facilities."

States the new analysis: "This staffing shortage can, in turn, lead to a declining availability of services and introduce a problem of access to care for those, particularly the elderly, requiring long term health care."

The new AHCA study, entitled, "Staffing of Nursing Services in Long Term Care: Present Issues and Prospects for the Future," can be accessed at www.ahca.org/news/staff-02-2001.htm .

The AHCA study notes the following in regard to future nursing needs: "The projected need for Registered Nurses (RNs) in nursing homes is estimated to increase 66.1% between 1991 and 2020. The number of Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs) needed in nursing homes is estimated to grow by 71.5% from 1991 to 2020. A similar growth (69.1%) in the proportion of nursing aides needed in nursing homes is projected."

On the much-discussed issue of staff/patient ratios, and the various proposals put forward by various parties, the AHCA report notes: "Depending upon the ratios proposed, the added costs to increase staff to meet the ratios can range from approximately $3 billion to over $15 billion in 2001." A detailed look at the costs of increasing staff/patient ratios in several different contexts is detailed in the report.

In August, 2000, the President and CEO of AHCA, Charles H. Roadman II, M.D., released new guiding principles supporting the creation of an "aggregate optimal staffing standard" that seeks to improve the overall quality of care of skilled nursing facility residents.

Specifically, AHCA recommended that the President and Congress work together to add 60,000 new LPNs and RNs to the profession by January 1, 2002 in addition to 250,000 new Certified Nursing Assistants (CNAs).

Said Dr. Roadman: "Finding, training and keeping qualified nursing staff is one of the most important challenges facing America's long term care providers. Just as the nation has made finding, training and retaining police officers and teachers a national priority, we strongly urge President Bush and the U.S. Congress to elevate nursing staff to a similar status. Failure to do so will have detrimental consequences to future retirees and to the very future of long term care in America."

The American Health Care Association is a non-profit federation of affiliated associations representing 12,000 non-profit and for-profit assisted living, sub-acute and skilled care providers nationally.

SOURCE: American Health Care Association